Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in raw milk business and effective cost control, with a revenue increase of 7.5% year-on-year to 20.1 billion yuan in 2024, despite a net loss of 6.91 billion yuan due to non-cash items [5][6][9] - The cash EBITDA increased significantly by 38.3% to 5.325 billion yuan, with a cash EBITDA margin of 26.5%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The raw milk business revenue reached 15.101 billion yuan, a 17.0% increase, contributing 75.1% to total revenue, with total raw milk production rising by 24.2% to 3.75 million tons [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 20.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [5] - The adjusted profit showed a strong performance, with cash EBITDA of 5.325 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 38.3% [5] - The gross margin improved by 4.9 percentage points to 28.8% [5] Business Segments - The raw milk segment experienced robust growth, with revenue of 15.101 billion yuan, a 17.0% increase, and total production of 3.75 million tons, up 24.2% [6] - The feed solutions segment faced short-term pressure, with revenue declining by 13.7% to 4.995 billion yuan [7] - The premium feed business saw a 44.5% increase in sales for beef and sheep, indicating a breakthrough in non-dairy feed markets [7] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in raw milk prices and an increase in production, with projected revenues of 21.856 billion yuan, 22.886 billion yuan, and 23.642 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -0.06 yuan in 2025 to 0.23 yuan in 2027 [9][11]
优然牧业（09858）：公司事件点评报告：原料奶业务增长强劲，成本管控能力突出