日度策略参考-2025-04-01

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Tin, Set Freight European Line [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Index Futures, Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Iron, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Corn, Soybean Meal, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Urea, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] - Watch: Pulp [1] Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend judgments and logical viewpoints for various commodities in different industries, including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and others, and gives corresponding investment strategies and suggestions [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Finance - Index Futures: Long IH and IF are relatively stable; IM should pay attention to increased volatility risks and use options for risk hedging [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1] - Gold: Expected to have a wide - range shock adjustment at high levels in the short term, with upward space in the long term [1] - Silver: Expected to have a wide - range shock at high levels in the short term [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Tariffs and high prices suppress downstream demand, with a risk of price correction [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices decline, and the short - term price lacks drivers and oscillates [1] - Alumina: Supply is in excess, but the decline may slow down in the short term as the price falls below the cost line [1] - Zinc: Short - term price is supported, and there is an opportunity for arbitrage between domestic and foreign zinc [1] - Stainless Steel: Futures prices oscillate widely in the short term, and operations should be short - term, with the industry paying attention to policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1] - Tin: Due to the earthquake in Myanmar, tin is likely to rise and difficult to fall, but beware of the risk of over - expected resumption of production [1] - Industrial Silicon: Supply is still slightly in excess, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [1] - Carbonate Lithium: Supply exceeds demand, inventory accumulates, and downstream support for prices is unfounded [1] Black Metals - Rebar: Demand recovers seasonally in March, with support from electric furnace valley - electricity costs and pressure from limited demand elasticity and undigested winter - storage inventory [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: There is no clear trading opportunity in the direction, and domestic production restrictions may directly affect production [1] - Iron Ore: The expected acceleration of steel mill复产 supports the price, but the flat - control expectation suppresses it [1] - Manganese Silicon: High inventory but cost support [1] - Silicon Iron: Cost weakens, but production areas cut production, and social inventory is neutral [1] - Glass: Demand is released in pulses, with limited upward space due to intense capital games [1] - Soda Ash: Short - term supply recovery is expected to increase, but there is medium - term supply excess and price pressure [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: Supply and demand are relatively in excess, and industrial customers are advised to seize arbitrage and hedging opportunities [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There is a game between low - inventory reality and weak supply - demand expectations, with near - month contracts oscillating widely [1] - Cotton: Overseas supply concerns and domestic high - inventory pressure coexist [1] - Corn: Short - term callback pressure and medium - term oscillating upward due to supply - demand tightening [1] - Soybean Meal: M05 follows the spot, and M09 is driven by the planting intention report [1] - Pulp: Lack of positive factors, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Logs: Inbound volume increases, and high - selling and low - buying within the range are recommended [1] - Pigs: Inventory recovers, but there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Affected by the cease - fire agreement and geopolitical situation, there may be a short - term rebound [1] - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1] - Shanghai Rubber: Facing the new tapping season, high inventory, and lack of trading logic [1] - PTA: Downstream production cuts hit demand [1] - Short - Fiber: Factory production cuts cannot change the downward trend [1] - Styrene: Weak downstream demand persists [1] - Methanol: Supply is loose, and prices are expected to be weak [1] - PE and PP: Market sentiment is weak, and prices oscillate weakly [1] - PVC: Short - term exports are good, but the fundamentals are weak [1] - Caustic Soda: Inventory accumulates, and prices oscillate weakly [1] Others - Set Freight European Line: There is a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. Long positions can be lightly tried in peak - season contracts [1]