HTSC(601688) 民生证券·2025-04-01 11:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [10] Core Views - The company achieved a record high in both revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of 41.5 billion yuan, up 13.4% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.4 billion yuan, up 20.4% year-on-year [1][10] - The growth in brokerage credit income has significantly improved, with brokerage income turning positive for the year, while investment banking and asset management revenue declines have narrowed [2][10] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from a recovering capital market, with strong performance in brokerage and asset management businesses [10] Revenue and Profit Analysis - For 2024, the company's revenue from various segments was as follows: proprietary trading 14.5 billion yuan (+24%), brokerage 6.4 billion yuan (+8%), asset management 4.1 billion yuan (-3%), credit 2.7 billion yuan (+184%), and investment banking 2.1 billion yuan (-31%) [2] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant increase in brokerage income, with net income from brokerage services reaching 2.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.1% [4] - The annualized return on equity (ROE) rose to 9.2%, and the net profit margin reached 37.0%, the highest since 2017 [9] Business Segment Performance - Proprietary trading income turned negative in Q4 2024, primarily due to a decline in investment returns and a larger drop in financial investment scale [3] - The asset management business saw a net income of 1.1 billion yuan in Q4 2024, with total asset management scale reaching 556.3 billion yuan, up 17.0% year-on-year [5][6] - The investment banking segment maintained resilience, with bond underwriting amounts increasing, while IPO underwriting showed a decline but remained stable [8] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 45 billion yuan in 2025, 48.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 51.4 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 16.6 billion yuan, 17.9 billion yuan, and 19.3 billion yuan respectively [10][11]