M&G(603899) 华创证券·2025-04-02 04:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.23 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.6% to 1.40 billion yuan [2]. - The company has initiated a share buyback of 5.175 million shares, totaling approximately 150 million yuan, and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio, proposing a cash dividend of 1.0 yuan per share, which represents 65.6% of net profit [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its new business segments while its traditional core business faces pressure [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2024A: Revenue of 24.23 billion yuan, net profit of 1.40 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 26.90 billion yuan, net profit of 1.59 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 29.54 billion yuan, net profit of 1.78 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 32.07 billion yuan, net profit of 1.95 billion yuan [2][8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024A: 1.51 yuan - 2025E: 1.72 yuan - 2026E: 1.93 yuan - 2027E: 2.11 yuan [2][8]. - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025E is projected at 18 times, decreasing to 15 times by 2027E [2][8]. Market Performance - The target price for the company's stock is set at 37.2 yuan, with the current price at 31.81 yuan, indicating a potential upside [3]. Business Segments - The traditional core business generated revenue of 9.33 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight year-on-year increase of 2.1%. However, the second half of 2024 saw a decline of 2.8% [2]. - The company is actively developing products appealing to younger consumers through IP collaborations and has seen significant growth in its online sales, achieving 1.14 billion yuan in revenue, a 33% increase year-on-year [2]. - The retail segment, including the "Morning Light Life Hall," achieved revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, a 10.8% increase, with a total of 779 retail stores nationwide [2]. Conclusion - The report indicates a solid long-term outlook for the company, driven by its core business strengths and growth in new segments, despite short-term challenges in traditional operations [2].