Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 20.749 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, and a net profit of 3.570 billion RMB, up 5.3% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.3264 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 76%, enhancing shareholder returns [3][4] - The company is a leader in the Chinese infant formula market, with a continuous increase in market share and solid brand and channel advantages. The forecast for net profit in 2025-2026 has been slightly lowered due to intense market competition and delayed effects of fertility policies [3][4] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue and net profit projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2025E Revenue: 22.234 billion RMB, YOY +7.2% - 2025E Net Profit: 3.868 billion RMB, YOY +8.4% - 2026E Revenue: 23.669 billion RMB, YOY +6.5% - 2026E Net Profit: 4.139 billion RMB, YOY +7.0% - 2027E Revenue: 25.208 billion RMB, YOY +6.5% - 2027E Net Profit: 4.416 billion RMB, YOY +6.7% [5] - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.43, 0.46, and 0.49 RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.8, 11.9, and 11.2 times [5] Product and Growth Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end and ultra-high-end products, with the "Star Feifan Zhuorui" series gaining market share. The birth rate in China is expected to improve, with 9.54 million births in 2024, a 5.8% increase year-on-year, which may drive demand for infant formula in 2025 [4] - The company is implementing a full-age nutrition strategy, covering all life stages from infants to the elderly, which is expected to support sustainable growth [4]
中国飞鹤：港股公司信息更新报告：分红提升股东回报，超高端系列持续带动增长-20250402