政策解读：美国“对等关税”远超预期，而后或有部分减免可能

Policy Overview - The "reciprocal tariffs" policy announced by Trump on April 2, 2025, exceeds market expectations, with a 25% tariff on automobiles effective April 3, 2025[1] - The U.S. government is projected to increase tariff revenue by approximately $600 billion annually, totaling$6 trillion over ten years due to the stringent "reciprocal tariffs" policy[1] Impact on Trade and Economy - The additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports is expected to reduce China's export growth by 10 percentage points and drag down GDP growth by 2 percentage points[2] - Cumulatively, the tariffs could lower China's export growth by 16 percentage points and GDP growth by 3.2 percentage points[4] Inflation and Economic Risks - The tariffs are projected to raise U.S. inflation by 0.41 to 0.82 percentage points, assuming a 50% to 100% pass-through to consumers[5] - The increase in average tariff rates to 10% could further raise U.S. inflation by 0.30 to 0.59 percentage points[5] Tariff Rates by Country - Tariffs on Chinese imports will rise to 67%, with additional tariffs on Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam (90%), Thailand (72%), and Indonesia (64%)[3][8] - Japan and the EU will face tariffs of 46% and 39%, respectively, under the new policy[3][8] Long-term Outlook - The high tariff rates are not expected to be permanent, as they may serve as leverage for negotiations with trade partners[6] - Risks include potential economic stagnation or recession in the U.S. due to the aggressive tariff policies[6]