SDHS(600350) 信达证券·2025-04-06 07:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shandong Expressway (600350) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance with a revenue of 28.494 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.34%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.07% to 3.196 billion yuan [2][3] - The toll revenue slightly declined by 5.95% to 9.928 billion yuan, despite a 3.23% increase in traffic volume to 186.9 million vehicles [3] - The core road asset expansion is nearing completion, which is expected to enhance traffic volume and fee rates, potentially leading to an upward shift in profit margins [5][8] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.593 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.16% year-on-year, with a net profit of 681 million yuan, an increase of 8.08% [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.42 yuan per share for 2024, maintaining the same level as in 2023, with a total distribution of 2.038 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of approximately 63.76% [6][7] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 3.346 billion yuan, 3.630 billion yuan, and 3.871 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.1, 13.9, and 13.1 [8] Segment Analysis - Toll revenue from the road and bridge operations was 9.928 billion yuan, with a notable decline in revenue from the Jiqing Expressway, which was approximately 3.603 billion yuan, down 12.12% year-on-year [3] - Capital operations showed a strong performance, with Qilu Expressway generating 7.022 billion yuan in revenue, up 25.19%, while the Rail Transit Group and Information Group also reported revenue increases [3] - The cost structure of toll roads indicates a depreciation and amortization cost of approximately 2.899 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.67%, while maintenance costs rose by 22.44% to 882 million yuan [4]