美国关税政策点评：美国关税政策同样需要回归常识

Economic Impact - The risk of global economic recession has significantly increased[6] - Tariffs on U.S. imports are projected to rise from 2.5% in 2024 to 16.5%, the highest since 1937, potentially reducing import volumes by 25%[6] - The implementation of tariffs is expected to decrease U.S. GDP by 0.4% due to basic tariffs and 0.3% due to punitive tariffs[6] Market Outlook - The outlook for U.S. stocks has turned bearish, with the S&P 500 still considered overvalued by 11%[6] - The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds has shifted down from 3.7-3.9% to 3.4-3.65%, indicating a preference for lower interest rates initially[6] Consumer Impact - By 2025, tariffs are expected to reduce disposable income for American households by 1.9%[6] - A uniform basic tariff of 10% will significantly increase the burden on U.S. consumers, particularly affecting low-income groups[7] Trade Relations - The U.S. tariff policy undermines the global supply chain established over the past 40 years, adversely affecting multinational corporations[7] - The tariffs have led to retaliatory measures from China, Europe, and Canada, further exacerbating the decline in U.S. GDP by an additional 0.1%[6] Policy Uncertainty - The unpredictability of Trump's tariff policies is likely to suppress corporate investment, as businesses may choose to wait and see before committing funds[8] - The potential for excessive domestic stimulus to counteract the negative impacts of tariffs could lead to inflationary pressures reminiscent of the 1970s stagflation[11]