商贸零售-银行业2024年报综述：营收、利润环比改善，关注零售风险压力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector for 2025, emphasizing stable growth and improved profit margins, particularly through high dividend strategies and selective investment in state-owned banks and high-yielding stocks [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the revenue decline for listed banks has narrowed, with a year-on-year revenue stability expected in 2024, driven by a significant increase in non-interest income and a reduction in the decline of net interest margins [2][3]. - The overall net profit for listed banks is projected to grow by 2.4% year-on-year in 2024, with state-owned banks and joint-stock banks showing a profit growth of 1.8% each, while city commercial banks and rural commercial banks are expected to grow by 9.1% and 7.7% respectively [2][3]. - The report indicates that credit demand remains weak, with a focus on corporate loans, although retail loans are showing signs of improvement due to ongoing consumption stimulus policies [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Overview - The report states that the operating income of listed banks remained flat year-on-year in 2024, with improvements noted in the fourth quarter due to high growth in non-interest income and optimized deposit costs [11][12]. - Non-interest income is highlighted as a significant contributor to revenue stability, with a 24% year-on-year increase attributed to strong bond market performance [2][3]. Scale - The total assets of listed banks grew by 7.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, with state-owned banks and city commercial banks showing robust growth rates of 7.9% and 12.5% respectively [38][43]. - The report notes that the loan scale increased by 7.8% year-on-year, with city commercial banks leading with an 11.3% growth rate [43][44]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income continues to face downward pressure but shows signs of marginal improvement, with investment income expected to decline due to a shift from a bull market to a more volatile market [2][3]. Asset Quality - The overall non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for listed banks remained stable at 1.24%, but the report warns of rising trends in overdue loans and restructured loans, particularly in the retail sector [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring of asset quality, especially in retail loans, which have seen a significant increase in NPL ratios [2][3]. Industry Outlook - The report projects that the banking sector will maintain stable growth in 2025, with expectations for improved net interest margins and continued marginal improvements in non-interest income [2][3]. - Investment recommendations focus on high-dividend strategies and selecting stocks with limited refinancing dilution risks, particularly in state-owned banks and certain high-yielding private banks [2][3].