诺思格：临床业务短期波动，SMO与数统业务持续增长-20250407

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company experienced short-term fluctuations in clinical business, while SMO and statistical services continued to grow steadily [6][7] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 744 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.14%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 140 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.73% [5][6] - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 782 million yuan, 873 million yuan, and 972 million yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.1%, 11.7%, and 11.3% [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 182 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.44%, while net profit increased by 52.16% to 56 million yuan due to the reversal of share-based payment expenses [5][6] - The clinical trial operation segment generated revenue of 320 million yuan, down 9.74%, with a gross margin of 29.98% [6] - The SMO service segment reported revenue of 205 million yuan, up 10.19%, with a gross margin of 30.21% [6] - The statistical services segment achieved revenue of 101 million yuan, up 26.35%, with a gross margin of 49.06% [7] - The biological sample testing business saw revenue of 64 million yuan, up 74.09%, with a gross margin of 52.90% [6] - The clinical trial consulting business generated revenue of 23 million yuan, down 20.56%, with a gross margin of 49.96% [6] - The clinical pharmacology segment reported revenue of 32 million yuan, down 10.74%, with a gross margin of 73.66% [6] Business Outlook - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, with revenue from overseas clients reaching 79 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.04% [7] - The domestic client revenue was 665 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.45% [7] - The company anticipates a recovery in industry demand driven by the implementation of innovative drug support policies [6] Valuation Metrics - The total market capitalization is 5.4 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 3.2 billion yuan [10] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.56 yuan, 1.81 yuan, and 2.07 yuan, respectively [11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 35.84 for 2025, decreasing to 26.98 by 2027 [11]