BTG Hotels(600258) 天风证券·2025-04-07 13:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [8][19]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a slight decline in revenue for 2024, projected at 7.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 1.4% to 810 million yuan [1][2]. - The company plans to accelerate the opening of standard hotels, targeting 1,500 new openings in 2025, which is anticipated to contribute to future performance growth [4][5]. - The company has shown resilience in its operating metrics, with a RevPAR of 167 yuan in 2024, down 3.2% year-on-year, but better than industry averages [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the hotel business is expected to generate 7.2 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 0.6%, while the total profit for this segment is projected to increase by 3.5% to 890 million yuan [2]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve slightly to 38.4%, with a net profit margin of 10.4%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point increase [5][7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.36 yuan per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 49.85%, up from 30.9% in 2023 [1][5]. Operational Metrics - The company reported a RevPAR of 154 yuan in Q4 2024, a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a narrowing decline compared to previous quarters [3][5]. - The occupancy rate (OCC) for 2024 is projected at 68.2%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the average daily rate (ADR) is expected to be 245 yuan, down 2.3% [3][5]. Expansion Plans - By the end of 2024, the company aims to have 7,002 hotels, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year, with a significant focus on expanding its standard and mid-to-high-end hotel segments [4][5]. - The company has a reserve of 1,743 potential new hotels, with 943 of these being standard hotels, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [4][5].