Jiaze Renewables(601619) 天风证券·2025-04-08 01:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [7][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.422 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.53% to 630 million yuan [1][6]. - The company has a significant growth potential in installed capacity, with 2.282 million kilowatts of grid-connected capacity by the end of 2024, an increase of 250,000 kilowatts year-on-year [2][3]. - The average wind power price for 2024 is projected to be 0.434 yuan/KWh, a decrease of 4.67% year-on-year, influenced by market trading dynamics [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 2.422 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.79%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 630 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 21.53% [1][6]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 1.952 billion yuan, with a slight decrease from the previous year [6]. Installed Capacity and Projects - By the end of 2024, the company will have a total installed capacity of 2.282 million kilowatts, including 2.041 million kilowatts from wind power and 235,000 kilowatts from solar power [2][3]. - The company has 1.9824 million kilowatts of wind power projects under construction or planned, representing 97% of its existing capacity [3]. Market Dynamics and Pricing - The proportion of market-based trading in the company's electricity sales is 50.78%, a decrease of 2.09 percentage points year-on-year, leading to increased price volatility [2][3]. - The average wind power price (excluding tax) is projected to decrease by 0.021 yuan/KWh compared to the previous year [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates net profits of 705 million yuan, 871 million yuan, and 1.147 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.08, 9.78, and 7.43 [4][6]. - The company plans to raise up to 1.2 billion yuan through a private placement to alleviate cash flow pressures and support project development [3][4].