GATD(688239) 天风证券·2025-04-08 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [7][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit by 122% in Q4 2024, while the total revenue for the year was 1.81 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 14.2% [1][2]. - The overseas revenue reached a record high of 760 million yuan, growing by 25.1% year-over-year, accounting for 45.2% of total revenue [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its technological capabilities and expanding into emerging sectors such as large aircraft, marine equipment, and nuclear power [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 390 million yuan, with a net profit of 40 million yuan, marking a 122% increase year-over-year [2]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 24.2%, a decrease of 1.28 percentage points year-over-year, while the net margin increased by 5.68 percentage points to 10.1% [2]. - For the full year 2024, the comprehensive gross margin was 28%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points, and the net margin was 10.3%, up by 1.6 percentage points [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic revenue for 2024 was 920 million yuan, a decrease of 34.0% year-over-year, while the gross margin was 32.2%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points [3]. - Key product revenues included: - Aerospace forgings: 1.36 billion yuan, down 9.1% year-over-year - Gas turbine forgings: 200 million yuan, up 20.7% year-over-year [3]. Future Projections - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.23 billion yuan, 2.60 billion yuan, and 3.08 billion yuan respectively, reflecting changes in downstream demand [5]. - The projected net profits for the same period are 262 million yuan, 339 million yuan, and 421 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.27, 16.41, and 13.24 [5][6].