基础化工行业事件点评：中美互加关税对我国化工产业的影响

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. is expected to have a limited direct impact on China's chemical exports, as the proportion of chemical products exported to the U.S. has already decreased significantly since 2018, now accounting for approximately 10.6% of total chemical exports [6][9] - The tariffs may indirectly affect the demand for chemical products through downstream manufacturing processes, but certain chemical products have been exempted from the tariffs, including fluorite, sucralose, vitamins, potassium fertilizers, and polytetrafluoroethylene, which are expected to have low self-sufficiency rates in the U.S. [6][7] - China's countermeasures against U.S. tariffs may impact the profitability and operating rates of downstream chemical products that rely heavily on imported ethane and propane [6][9] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the relative return of the industry has been -1.6% over 1 month, 2.0% over 3 months, and -9.2% over 12 months, while the absolute return has been -10.6% over 1 month, -3.5% over 3 months, and -8.6% over 12 months [3] Market Dynamics - The domestic chemical industry is expected to benefit from accelerated domestic substitution of high-end products due to the trade tensions, with a focus on products like POE [7] - There is an expectation of more proactive policies to stimulate domestic demand in response to the tariff impacts, particularly benefiting sectors like refrigerants and civil explosives [7][9]