Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group [2]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of CNY 29.01 billion in FY24, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with finished drug revenue at CNY 23.74 billion, down 7.4% year-on-year [12][3]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) was 70.0%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 4.33 billion, down 26.3% year-on-year [12][3]. - The report anticipates that licensing income will contribute incremental revenue, with expectations for innovative drug products to exceed CNY 1.5 billion in FY25 [13][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25 and FY26 are adjusted to CNY 31.4 billion and CNY 32.7 billion, reflecting an increase of 8.2% and 4.1% year-on-year, respectively [17]. - Net profit forecasts for FY25 and FY26 are raised to CNY 5.8 billion and CNY 5.3 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 34.7% and a decline of 8.5% [17]. - The report highlights a diluted EPS of CNY 0.50 for FY25 and CNY 0.45 for FY26 [10]. Segment Performance - The nervous system segment showed steady growth with sales reaching CNY 9.6 billion, up 6.1% year-on-year, while the oncology segment saw a decline to CNY 4.4 billion, down 28.3% year-on-year due to volume-based procurement (VBP) impacts [19][4]. - Revenue from anti-infectives was CNY 4.1 billion, down 3.5% year-on-year, and cardiovascular sales were CNY 2.1 billion, down 14.8% year-on-year [19][4]. - The respiratory system segment experienced a significant decline, with sales of CNY 1.2 billion, down 23.1% year-on-year, while digestion and metabolism registered sales of CNY 1.1 billion, up 18.1% year-on-year [19][4]. Clinical Development and Licensing - CSPC initiated the first Phase III clinical trial for SYS6010 (EGFR ADC) in March 2025, targeting EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer [15]. - The company out-licensed its ROR1 ADC to Radiance Biopharma, receiving an upfront payment of USD 15 million with potential milestone payments of up to USD 1.2 billion [16]. - The report suggests that licensing revenue will gradually become a recurring income stream for CSPC [16].
石药集团：2024年业绩：成药收入受集采影响承压；授权收入有望贡献增量-20250409