GDEP(600310) 国信证券·2025-04-09 02:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guangxi Energy is "Outperform the Market" [5][15]. Core Views - The company's revenue decreased by 76.48% year-on-year to 3.932 billion yuan in 2024, primarily due to the divestiture of its oil business. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 3704.04% to 63 million yuan, driven by improved water inflow and fair value changes [1][7]. - The company has seen an increase in self-generated electricity, with the supply business achieving a non-recurring net profit of 415 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48 million yuan. The hydropower business benefited from better water inflow, resulting in a non-recurring net profit of 228 million yuan, up 126 million yuan year-on-year [1][7]. - The company is actively advancing its renewable energy projects, including offshore wind and solar power, which are expected to exceed the capacity of its existing hydropower and thermal power plants upon completion [2][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total electricity generation of 6.383 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.50%, with an average on-grid electricity price of 345.81 yuan/MWh. The sales volume reached 8.585 billion kWh, up 1.45%, with an average selling price of 507.82 yuan/MWh [2][13]. - The company's revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 271 million yuan, 394 million yuan, and 452 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.19, 0.27, and 0.31 yuan [3][15]. Business Segments - The supply business and hydropower business showed positive performance, while the thermal power segment faced challenges due to high coal prices and reduced utilization hours, resulting in a non-recurring net profit of -286 million yuan [1][7]. - The company is focusing on renewable energy, with significant projects underway, including offshore wind farms and solar power projects, which will enhance its overall capacity [2][13]. Valuation Metrics - The company's financial metrics indicate a significant improvement in profitability, with a gross margin of 25.40%, up 19.88 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 1.60%, an increase of 1.43 percentage points [10][11]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 24.2, 16.6, and 14.5 respectively, reflecting a positive outlook despite the recent revenue decline [4][15].