CNOOC(600938) 光大证券·2025-04-09 13:59Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The actual controller, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between RMB 20 billion and RMB 40 billion over the next 12 months, starting from April 8, 2025, which is expected to boost investor confidence [1][2] - The company has demonstrated resilience in its performance, achieving a net profit of RMB 137.9 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, despite a 2.8% decline in average crude oil prices [2] - The company aims for stable production growth with a focus on high-quality development, targeting net production of 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, a 7.2% increase year-on-year [2] - The company maintains a high dividend policy, with a projected dividend of HKD 1.40 per share for 2024, reflecting a 12% increase and a payout ratio of 44.7% [3] Summary by Sections Investment Plan - CNOOC's plan to increase its stake is based on confidence in the company's long-term development and the recognition of the capital market's investment value [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of RMB 137.9 billion, up 11.4% year-on-year, while the average crude oil price fell by 2.8% [2] - The company’s net production reached a historical high of 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, marking a 7.2% increase from the previous year [2] - The main cost per barrel of oil equivalent was USD 28.52, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, which is an increase from the previous lower limit of 40% [3] - The high dividend yield and consistent payout policy enhance the company's investment attractiveness in a low-interest-rate environment [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be RMB 150.3 billion, RMB 156.2 billion, and RMB 161.4 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 3.16, RMB 3.29, and RMB 3.40 [3][4]