ZTO EXPRESS(ZTO) 海通国际证券·2025-04-09 14:29Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for ZTO Express, with a target price of USD 25.89, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of USD 16.51 [2][5]. Core Insights - ZTO Express reported stable profitability in 2024, with revenue of RMB 44.281 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit of RMB 8.817 billion, up 0.8% [3][12]. - The company aims to focus on accelerating parcel volume growth in 2025, with guidance set at 20%-24% growth, following a decline in growth rate in 2024 [3][13]. - The average price per unit increased in 2024 due to an optimized customer structure, contributing to revenue growth [4][13]. - Transportation costs saw a significant decline in 2024, enhancing profitability despite rising sorting costs due to labor and automation expenses [4][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, ZTO Express achieved a gross margin of 31.0%, with a net profit margin of 22.8% [10]. - The company expects adjusted net income to ordinary equity of RMB 10.126 billion in 2025, with projected EPS of RMB 12.08 [5][14]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 49.605 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 12% [10]. Market Position and Strategy - ZTO Express completed a parcel volume of 34 billion in 2024, holding a market share of 19.4%, which is a slight decline from the previous year [3][4]. - The company plans to enhance its market share and operational efficiency in 2025, focusing on volume growth over pricing strategies [5][13].