MEITUAN(03690) 东方证券·2025-04-10 01:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W with a target price of 178.12 HKD [5][12][15] Core Insights - The overall performance of Meituan in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 885 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20% [9] - The core local business showed resilience, with revenue of 656 billion CNY in Q4 2024, up 19% year-on-year [9] - New business segments, particularly overseas expansion, are seeing positive developments, with new business revenue growing by 24% year-on-year [10] Summary by Sections Delivery Business - In Q4 2024, the delivery orders grew in the high single digits, with average order value (AOV) declining year-on-year but showing a reduced decline quarter-on-quarter [2] - The operational improvements and increased monetization rates helped offset the negative impact of AOV decline on revenue [2] - The macroeconomic environment continues to affect delivery order volumes and AOV, but there are structural opportunities for advertising revenue growth [2] Flash Purchase - Flash purchase orders are estimated to have increased by approximately 25% in Q4 2024, achieving profitability for the year [3] - The convenience of instant retail is stimulating consumer demand, particularly in lower-tier markets [3] - Revenue growth is expected to outpace order growth, contributing significantly to long-term profits [3] In-store and Travel Services - Orders in the in-store and travel segment are projected to grow over 65% year-on-year in 2024, with record highs in annual transaction users and active merchants [4] - The introduction of live streaming and promotional activities is enhancing merchant operations and marketing efficiency [4] - The organizational adjustments and the launch of the Meituan membership system are expected to improve customer acquisition and transaction frequency in this segment [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts a revenue of 337.6 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 21.99% [12] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at 35.8 billion CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 158.43% [12] - The estimated earnings per share for 2024 is 5.86 CNY, with a projected increase in subsequent years [12][14]