Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 8.2, reflecting a 13x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [5]. Core Insights - The company's 2H24 performance fell short of market expectations, with total revenue of HKD 1.5 billion, a year-on-year decline of 20%, and a 11% miss compared to Bloomberg consensus [2][3]. - The payment business, which accounts for 89% of revenue, also underperformed, with a 6% revenue miss due to a greater-than-expected decline in Gross Payment Volume (GPV) [1][2]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in its payment business in 2025, projecting a high single-digit year-on-year growth, with revenue growth outpacing GPV growth [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was HKD 3.951 billion, with a projected decline to HKD 3.087 billion in 2024, followed by a recovery to HKD 3.402 billion in 2025, representing a 10.2% year-on-year growth [4]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at HKD 274 million, with a net profit margin of 4.5% [4][9]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 24.4% in 2025, up from 23.6% in 2024 [4]. Business Segment Analysis - The one-stop payment service revenue decreased by 19% year-on-year in 2H24, while merchant solutions revenue fell by 30% due to a decline in the number of paying merchants [3][9]. - The overseas business showed significant progress, with a GPV of HKD 1.1 billion in 2024, nearly a fivefold increase year-on-year, driven by bank channel development and customer expansion [3][4]. Market Position and Valuation - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 3.166 billion, with a circulating market value of HKD 1.766 billion [5]. - The stock has experienced a 12-month low of HKD 6.4 and a high of HKD 13.4, indicating volatility in its market performance [5].
移卡：2H24业绩不及预期，2025年支付业务有望恢复增长-20250410