国泰海通晨报-20250410

Group 1: Fixed Income and Asset Allocation - The fixed income team believes the market is expected to gradually stabilize, with fixed income + funds providing both long-term allocation and left-side speculation capabilities [2][4] - The active allocation team integrates active allocation views into quantitative model research, achieving an annualized return of 24.0% for global asset allocation strategies [5][6] - The report recommends focusing on consumer-oriented funds for investors seeking higher equity exposure in fixed income + products [4][5] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction team emphasizes the importance of domestic demand policies supporting housing construction and infrastructure, recommending stocks like Jianghe Group and China Construction [10][11] - The construction index has decreased by 3% since the beginning of 2025, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.73, indicating low valuations [10] - The report highlights that the overseas business of Chinese construction companies is largely concentrated in Belt and Road Initiative countries, which is expected to continue growing [11] Group 3: Basic Chemicals - The basic chemicals team maintains a positive outlook on the pesticide sector, citing its essential demand characteristics and limited impact from tariffs [13][14] - The report recommends leading pesticide companies like Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Shares, which have established production facilities in the U.S. [14][15] - The global pesticide market is expected to benefit from changes in trade patterns, with China's pesticide exports showing significant growth [14][15] Group 4: Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a rebound, with excavator sales in March 2025 increasing by 18.5% year-on-year [22][23] - The report suggests that domestic sales of excavators are expected to continue rising due to supportive fiscal policies and industry cycles [22][23] - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG Machinery, which are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery [22] Group 5: Insurance Sector - The recent regulatory changes are expected to enhance the investment capacity of insurance companies in equity markets, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the sector [27][28] - The adjustments in equity asset allocation limits for insurance companies are aimed at increasing their support for capital markets and the real economy [28][29] - The report suggests increasing allocations to major insurance firms like China Life and Ping An Insurance [27][29] Group 6: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector shows positive growth, with significant increases in passenger kilometers (RPK) for major airlines compared to previous years [31][32] - The report highlights that airlines like Eastern Airlines are leading in multiple performance metrics, including RPK and load factors [31][33] - Recommended stocks include Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [31]