瑞银：美国关税，一次性估值冲击；“国家队” 的入场

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a significant decline following the announcement of a 34% tariff increase by the US government on April 2, 2025, with the weighted ad valorem tariff rate on imports from China potentially averaging about 63% after the hike [2][9] - The UBS-S China Macro team estimates that the tariff hikes could subtract around 4 percentage points from A-share earnings growth in 2025, with non-financials' net profit growth expected to decelerate by 6 percentage points due to margin contraction [3][11] - The report highlights that the A-share market appears undervalued, trading at a significant discount to global emerging markets, which may provide resilience against the negative impacts of tariffs [4][34] Summary by Sections Macro Perspective - The US tariff hike on China is expected to have a substantial negative impact on China's export growth and GDP growth, potentially dragging down A-share earnings growth significantly [9][10] - The correlation between revenue growth of A-share non-financials and China's nominal GDP growth suggests that a slowdown in GDP will adversely affect earnings [11][12] Bottom-Up Analysis - The overseas revenue contribution for the non-financial A-share sector has increased from 6.8% in 2010 to 13.1% in 2023, with certain sectors like electronics and home appliances being more exposed to overseas markets [25][27] - The report indicates that more than 70% of sectors have less than 15% of their total revenue from exports, suggesting limited overall exposure to tariff impacts [25] Market Pricing of Tariffs - Historical data shows that the A-share market typically corrects around 3% on the first day of tariff-related news, indicating a timely pricing in of trade frictions [29][30] - The current market movements may have already factored in the potential negative implications of the new tariffs [30] Valuation and Market Stability - The CSI 300 and all A-shares are trading at trailing PEs that are below their five-year averages, indicating potential downside protection [34] - The 'national team' is expected to increase its holdings to stabilize the market, with significant net inflows into A-share ETFs reported [5][43] Policy Expectations - The report anticipates significant macro policy support to stabilize growth, including potential cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates, as well as fiscal expansion measures [41][42] - The 'national team' has been actively engaged in market-stabilizing operations, reflecting confidence in the long-term prospects of China's capital markets [43][44]