财通证券-3月美国通胀数据解读：能源和服务通胀仍在降温

Inflation Data Summary - In March, the U.S. CPI experienced a month-on-month decline of -0.1%, marking the first negative growth since June 2024[9] - Year-on-year CPI growth significantly dropped to 2.4%, indicating a substantial cooling of inflation[9] - Core CPI also fell to 2.8%, the lowest level since March 2021[9] Energy and Commodity Prices - The year-on-year growth rate for the energy component of CPI fell to -3.3%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month[12] - Brent crude oil prices averaged $72.7 per barrel in March, declining to$71.5 per barrel in April due to OPEC+ production increases and concerns over U.S. tariffs[12] - Core commodity prices saw a month-on-month decline of -0.1%, with used car, furniture, and clothing prices decreasing[17] Service Sector Insights - Core service inflation year-on-year growth decreased to 3.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[20] - The month-on-month growth rate for core services fell to 0.1%, driven by lower prices in auto insurance, airfare, and entertainment services[20] Market Expectations and Risks - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts increased, with projections rising to an average of 3.5 cuts for the year[26] - There is a potential risk of inflation rebounding due to the implementation of tariffs, which could raise inflation by at least 0.6% if a comprehensive 10% tariff is enacted without retaliation[3][29] - Risks include unexpected monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and a potential downturn in the U.S. economy[4][31]