Yanjing Brewery(000729) 华鑫证券·2025-04-11 06:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Yanjing Beer [4][6]. Core Views - Yanjing Beer achieved a strong performance in 2024, with total revenue of 14.667 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.20%, and a significant rise in net profit by 63.74% to 1.056 billion yuan [1][4]. - The company continues to see high growth in its flagship product, Yanjing U8, which has driven overall sales structure upgrades and is expected to maintain over 30% growth in 2025 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Annual Performance - In 2024, Yanjing Beer reported total revenue of 14.667 billion yuan, up 3.20% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.056 billion yuan, reflecting a 63.74% increase [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed stable revenue of 1.821 billion yuan, with a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1]. Product Pricing and Structure - The average price per ton of beer increased by 1.60% in 2024, with total beer sales volume reaching 4.0044 million kiloliters, a 1.57% increase year-on-year [2]. - Yanjing U8 sales grew significantly by 31.40% to 696,000 kiloliters, increasing its share of total beer sales by 3.95 percentage points to 17.38% [2]. Q1 2025 Performance - For Q1 2025, the company expects net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 160 million and 172 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.96% to 67.66% [3]. - The company is implementing nine major reforms to enhance operational efficiency and reduce losses from subsidiaries, which is expected to boost profitability [3]. Profit Forecast - The report projects continued high growth for Yanjing Beer, particularly driven by the U8 product line, with adjusted EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 at 0.37, 0.50, and 0.61 yuan respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 35, 26, and 22 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4].