BYD(002594) 华龙证券·2025-04-11 07:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD (002594.SZ) is maintained as "Buy" [2][7]. Core Views - BYD is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 85.0-100.0 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 86.04%-118.88%, with a midpoint estimate of 92.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 102.46% year-on-year [4][6]. - The significant growth in profitability is attributed to increased overseas sales and the release of scale effects, with overseas sales reaching 206,100 units in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 110.51% [6]. - The company is advancing its high-end strategy with strong performance from its premium brands, including Tengshi and Fangchengbao, which saw sales increases of 37.20% and 73.64% respectively in Q1 2025 [6]. - BYD's global expansion strategy is progressing smoothly, with production facilities in Uzbekistan and Thailand already operational, and additional factories in Brazil and Hungary expected to start production in 2025 [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, BYD's expected net profit is 92.5 billion yuan, a 102.46% increase year-on-year [4]. - The company anticipates net profits of 559.31 billion yuan, 682.92 billion yuan, and 810.25 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][8]. Market Data - As of April 10, 2025, BYD's stock price is 336.40 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 1,022.34 billion yuan [3]. - The company achieved total sales of 1,000,800 units in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59.81% [6]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for BYD are 18.3, 15.0, and 12.6 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a premium valuation compared to peers [6][8]. - The expected revenue growth rates for BYD are 25.35%, 18.39%, and 15.95% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8].