中泰国际：美方宣布暂缓对全球“对等关税”生效日期，并豁免半导体、手机等关键品类关税

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index dropped 15.7% to 19,260 points due to US "reciprocal tariffs" and China's countermeasures, but the weekly decline narrowed to 8.5%, closing at 20,914 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 7.8% to 4,900 points, yet both indices maintained their upward gaps from late January, indicating resilience in AI-related sectors[1] - Daily trading volume averaged HKD 427.7 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 74.59 billion from the Stock Connect, marking the fourth-highest weekly record[1] Economic Implications - The US announced a delay in the implementation of global "reciprocal tariffs" and exempted key categories like semiconductors and mobile phones, suggesting a potential easing in US-China trade tensions[2] - China's GDP may decline by over 2% due to weak exports, prompting expectations for accelerated expansionary policies focused on consumer stimulation and high-end manufacturing investments[2] - The Hang Seng Index's forecasted PE ratio is expected to drop to 9 times, indicating that valuations have entered a reasonable range, providing short-term support[2] Sector Performance - Geely Auto (175 HK) expects Q1 2025 net profit to rise to RMB 5.2-5.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 220%-270%, driven by record sales and strong growth in new energy vehicles[3] - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell 9.3% due to potential US tariffs on drugs, but innovative drug stocks rebounded, with gains of 4.4%-10.9% for companies like BeiGene (6160 HK) and Innovent (1801 HK)[3] - The solar industry faced significant declines, with stocks like Xinyi Solar (968 HK) and GCL-Poly (3800 HK) dropping 13.1% and 14.7%, respectively, due to challenges from US tariffs[4] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) with a target price of HKD 31.60, despite uncertainties from tariffs and overseas consumption[5] - The pharmaceutical sector is recommended for investment, particularly innovative drug manufacturers, as the impact of US tariffs is deemed manageable[9][10] - Key stocks recommended include Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) and Innovent Biologics (1801 HK), with limited tariff impact expected on their operations[12]