关税反复+财政担忧+联储观望，金价继续冲高

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Views - Gold prices continue to rise due to tariff disruptions and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability, with the London gold closing price at 3238.07 USD/oz and a weekly increase of 6.6% [1][13] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and inflation expectations is driving investment towards gold, highlighting its value in the current economic climate [1][13] - The copper market shows signs of stabilization, with prices fluctuating due to tariff policy changes, closing at 9184 USD/ton after a drop to 8100 USD/ton [2][14] Summary by Sections Gold Market - Tariff-induced stagflation expectations and the instability of tariff policies are pushing gold prices higher [1][13] - The latest Republican budget proposal raises concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability, allowing for a 5.3 trillion USD tax cut over ten years while only reducing spending by 40 billion USD [1][13] - The Federal Reserve remains cautious amid market volatility, with officials expressing concerns about inflation driven by tariffs [1][13] Copper Market - Copper prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, supported by improved demand and a decrease in social inventory [2][14] - The recent tariff pause by Trump has led to a rebound in copper prices, although uncertainties remain regarding future negotiations [2][14] - The domestic social inventory of copper has decreased by 35,500 tons to 358,800 tons, indicating a trend of inventory reduction [2][14] Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is experiencing a downward trend in alumina prices, while the fundamentals for electrolytic aluminum remain strong [15][16] - Despite short-term price pressures, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain robust due to seasonal factors and increased orders from the photovoltaic and power grid sectors [15][16] Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metal index has underperformed the market, with a decline of 4.23% this week, ranking 14th among 30 sub-industries [17] - Gold has shown the highest increase among non-ferrous metals, with an 8.91% rise, while copper has seen a decline of 3.74% [17] Price Trends - Basic metal prices have generally declined, with SHFE copper down 5.58% to 74,770 CNY/ton and SHFE aluminum down 3.72% to 19,675 CNY/ton [37][39] - International prices also reflect a downward trend, with LME copper down 2.26% to 9,155 USD/ton [37][39]