中美关税博弈白热化，政策预期驱动估值修复

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to see a valuation recovery due to the US postponing "reciprocal tariffs" on China and temporarily exempting some key categories from tariffs, which may reduce the risk premium that has suppressed the market [1] - The Hang Seng Index's forecast PE has fallen to 9 times, with the risk premium returning to its two-year average, indicating that the valuation attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks is gradually emerging [1] - Key investment themes include domestic consumption stimulus policies and accelerated investment in high-end manufacturing, particularly in sectors like semiconductor equipment and AI computing [1][10] Group 2: US Stock Market - The US stock market is currently experiencing a volatile phase characterized by technical recovery and fundamental challenges, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices nearing bear market levels [2] - The recent decline in the US stock market is primarily driven by concerns over tariff risks, but a marginal easing of the tariff situation could lead to a rebound in market sentiment [2] - The upcoming earnings season may provide support, as major banks like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have reported better-than-expected results, and companies are resuming share buybacks [2] Group 3: Macroeconomic Indicators - In March, US consumer confidence hit a new low since June 2022, reflecting the negative impact of tariff uncertainties on expectations, while inflation expectations surged to a 40-year high [4] - Despite soft indicators signaling economic downturn risks, hard data such as employment and retail sales have not triggered recession alarms, indicating some resilience in the economy [4][20] - China's export growth in March showed a significant rebound, with a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, driven by strong external demand and a "grab export" effect [10] Group 4: Investment Trends - The net inflow of funds into Hong Kong stocks reached a record high, with significant investments in technology and consumer sectors, reflecting confidence in policy resilience and industrial upgrades [27] - The Hang Seng Index and MSCI China Index are currently trading at forecast PEs of 9.3 times and 10.2 times, respectively, indicating a potential undervaluation in the context of external risks [32][33] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations and potential internal policy stimulus to mitigate external pressures on the market [32]