Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618.HK) [1][9] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, and the impact of new business investments is expected to be manageable [2] - JD Group's revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to reach 290.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [5] - The report highlights the strong recovery in consumer spending and the benefits from national subsidies, particularly in the electronics and daily necessities categories [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Projections: - 2025E: 1,266.2 billion yuan - 2026E: 1,334.0 billion yuan - 2027E: 1,400.6 billion yuan [7][9] - Net Profit Projections: - 2025E: 45.56 billion yuan - 2026E: 51.38 billion yuan - 2027E: 56.05 billion yuan [7][9] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2025E: 14.63 yuan - 2026E: 16.40 yuan - 2027E: 17.78 yuan [7][9] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2025E: 18% - 2026E: 19% - 2027E: 20% [7][9] Business Segment Insights - JD Retail: - Expected revenue growth of 12.3% to 254.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, driven by national subsidies and improved operational efficiency [5][8] - JD Logistics: - Anticipated revenue growth of 11% to 46.9 billion yuan in Q1 2025, benefiting from the overall growth in the express delivery market [5][8] - JD Delivery: - Daily order volume is projected to exceed 5 million following the launch of a significant subsidy program [8]
京东集团-SW（09618）：业绩基本符合预期，新业务投入预计影响可控