摩根士丹利：中国思考-尽管出台刺激政策，但关税冲击下经济增长预期仍被下调

April 14, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Musings | Asia Pacific Growth Cut Despite Stimulus amid Tariff Shock We lower our 2025 GDP growth forecast 30bps, to 4.2%, with quarterly growth to slow from 5.4% YoY in 4Q24 to 3.7% YoY in 4Q25. We expect Rmb1-1.5trn additional stimulus in 2H and US- China tariffs to unwind gradually. Key Takeaways How long would elevated US tariffs last? The prevailing prohibitive tariffs, if prolonged, would severely disrupt bilateral trade, imposing notable downward pressures on growth ...