短评：特朗普关税政策升级或受限于美债危机等现实约束

Group 1: Tariff Policy Changes - On April 2, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on 185 trade partners, exceeding market expectations[3] - Just one week later, on April 9, Trump suspended the implementation of these tariffs for 90 days, excluding China, maintaining a 10% baseline tariff[3] - Current tariffs on China have reached 145%, with the suspension of the tailored reciprocal tariffs affecting other countries[7] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Impact - Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. market experienced significant turmoil, with simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies[5] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.48% on April 11, up 47 basis points from 4.01% on April 4[5] - U.S. national debt exceeds $36 trillion, accounting for 125% of GDP, with annual interest payments consuming 30% of federal revenue[5] Group 3: Future Considerations and Risks - The potential for further tariff changes remains, but current economic pressures may lead to a temporary slowdown in tariff escalations[8] - Key political and economic pressures include U.S. national debt, technology sector concerns, and voter sentiment, which may influence future tariff decisions[8] - The risk of unexpected economic downturns or policy shifts could significantly impact the effectiveness of Trump's tariff strategies[9]