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中牧股份:量增利减,业绩承压-20250415
600195CAHIC(600195) 中邮证券·2025-04-15 08:23

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.017 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.30%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 82.41% to 71 million yuan due to intense market competition and declining product prices [5][6] - The company is expected to see performance improvement in 2025, driven by stabilization in the downstream breeding sector and rapid growth in pet vaccine sales, which will be crucial for enhancing the company's valuation [8] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 7.23 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 7.4 billion yuan [4] - The company has a total share capital of 1.021 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 26.5% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 104.18 [4] Financial Performance - The vaccine business showed stable revenue growth despite a significant drop in product prices, with revenue from the biological products sector reaching 1.014 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.52% year-on-year, but with a gross margin decline of 8.98 percentage points to 37.14% [6] - The pharmaceutical segment achieved a revenue of 1.692 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.90%, with a notable sales volume increase of 35.58% [6] - The feed business generated revenue of 1.1 billion yuan, up 7.23% year-on-year, but with a profit margin decrease of 1.87 percentage points to 21.68% [6] - The trade business saw a volume increase of 17.17% year-on-year, totaling 381,700 tons [7] Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.15 yuan, 0.25 yuan, and 0.35 yuan respectively, with expected revenue growth rates of 6.56%, 10.40%, and 11.55% [9][10]