Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The report discusses the valuation and growth potential of the company, 毛戈平, in the context of international luxury beauty brands and domestic new consumption trends. It highlights the company's unique brand culture and competitive advantages in the high-end beauty market, suggesting that it is well-positioned to capture market share and achieve stable growth [1][8]. Summary by Sections International Beauty Giants - International beauty giants like L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and Shiseido have maintained stable growth and valuation premiums due to their comprehensive brand matrices and global strategies. L'Oréal's average PE from 2015 to 2024 is 38 times, with a revenue and net profit CAGR of 6.5% and 7.7% respectively [2][3]. - Estée Lauder has focused on youthfulness and high-end branding, achieving an average PE of 80 times from 2020 to 2022, but faced significant volatility post-2021 due to market changes [2]. - Shiseido's strategy of focusing on mid-to-high-end products and global expansion has led to a peak PE exceeding 100 times, although it has faced challenges in revenue and profit stability in recent years [3]. Domestic New Consumption - The rise of domestic brands reflects increased cultural confidence and changing consumer demands. Brands like 毛戈平, 老铺黄金, and 泡泡玛特 have capitalized on cultural recognition and competitive scarcity, leading to significant stock performance [4]. - 毛戈平 is highlighted as a rare high-end domestic beauty brand with substantial growth potential, leveraging its founder's cultural IP and a professional product matrix to establish a strong market position [8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 50.54 billion, 65.03 billion, and 82.58 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 11.85 billion, 15.06 billion, and 19.18 billion yuan respectively. The compound annual growth rate for net profit from 2024 to 2027 is estimated at 29.6% [9]. - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.42, 3.07, and 3.91 yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 41.53, 32.68, and 25.67 times [9]. Competitive Advantages - 毛戈平's unique brand culture and high-end product offerings create a competitive moat in the domestic beauty market. The company is expanding its product matrix and has begun exploring overseas markets, with initial revenues from international sales already noted [8][9].
毛戈平（01318）：从海外高奢美妆品牌的成长之路，看出成长之路