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金徽酒:2025年一季报点评:结构优化路径清晰,长期增长势能强劲-20250415
603919JINHUI(603919) 西南证券·2025-04-15 12:33

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is on a clear path of structural optimization, with strong long-term growth potential [1] - The company achieved revenue of 1.11 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 230 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [7] - The company is accelerating its national layout, with significant growth in high-end products priced above 300 yuan, which saw a revenue increase of 28.1% [7] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 66.8% due to product structure upgrades [7] - The company aims for a revenue target of 3.28 billion yuan and a net profit of 408 million yuan for 2025, which is expected to be achieved smoothly [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 3.021 billion yuan, 3.276 billion yuan, 3.602 billion yuan, and 4.004 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 18.59%, 8.42%, 9.97%, and 11.16% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 388 million yuan in 2024A, 411 million yuan in 2025E, 458 million yuan in 2026E, and 535 million yuan in 2027E, with growth rates of 18.03%, 5.92%, 11.29%, and 16.94% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.77 yuan in 2024A, 0.81 yuan in 2025E, 0.90 yuan in 2026E, and 1.05 yuan in 2027E [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 11.48% in 2024A to 12.64% in 2027E [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on deepening its market presence in the northwest while also targeting growth in eastern and northern regions [7] - The marketing transformation is showing initial results, with a strategy of "one county, one policy" leading to improved market share [7] - The company is actively enhancing its brand recognition among consumers through product structure upgrades and marketing efforts [7]