八维解析“对等关税”下的中国产业韧性图谱

Macroeconomic Impact - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. on April 2, 2025, signals a shift in global trade dynamics and geopolitical relations, accelerating the restructuring of global economic and trade patterns[6] - The potential for a global economic recession remains high, with a long-term view suggesting a reconfiguration of global supply chains, leading to temporary supply shortages and increased investment, which may elevate medium to long-term inflation pressures[8] - The U.S. dollar's credibility may weaken due to accelerated "de-dollarization" trends and rising trade protectionism[8] Financial Market Reactions - The "tariff storm" has intensified, leading to a rapid decline in risk asset prices, with expectations of higher volatility in domestic equity markets[9] - Short-term performance of brokerage firms and credit businesses is likely to be under pressure due to heightened investor risk aversion[9] - Long-term capital inflows into the market are expected to continue, with insurance companies increasing their equity investment space[9] Commodity and Metal Sector - The impact of tariffs on commodities is categorized into two main directions: bulk commodities and China's advantageous minor metals, with significant effects on demand and pricing dynamics[10] - Copper prices are expected to remain supported in the short term due to tight domestic supply, despite macroeconomic uncertainties[12] - Zinc's overall impact from tariffs is limited due to China's small import scale from the U.S., but downstream products may face market share pressures[13] New Energy and Technology - The lithium market is largely unaffected by tariffs, as key products are exempt, but the overall demand for lithium batteries may decline due to increased costs[23] - The U.S. storage sector may face demand risks, but its overall impact on global demand remains manageable, with China maintaining a leading position in the supply chain[24] - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from increased domestic production due to tariffs, despite potential short-term price increases for imported chips[31] Strategic Resources and Rare Earths - China maintains a dominant position in the rare earth market, with over 70% of U.S. imports relying on Chinese sources, particularly for heavy rare earths[20] - The introduction of tariffs may lead to price increases for strategic metals, with ongoing geopolitical tensions influencing supply chain dynamics[19] Automotive and High-End Manufacturing - The automotive sector is likely to see significant price increases in the U.S. due to a 25% tariff on vehicles and parts, impacting domestic demand[28] - China's engineering machinery exports are relatively insulated from tariffs, with limited exposure to the U.S. market, allowing for continued global operations[33] Consumer and Trade Dynamics - The tourism and retail sectors may benefit from changes in tax policies, with domestic consumption potentially increasing due to higher prices on imported goods[34] - The overall trade landscape is shifting, with opportunities for domestic businesses to capitalize on tariff-induced market changes[34]