TENCENT(00700) 国海证券·2025-04-16 03:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) [1][28] Core Insights - The core business continues to show strong growth, with operational leverage being released [1] - The report anticipates a revenue of 1,778 billion RMB for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 11% [7][27] - The expected non-IFRS net profit for Q1 2025 is 617 billion RMB, reflecting a 23% year-over-year growth [7][27] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7,243 billion RMB, 7,891 billion RMB, and 8,604 billion RMB respectively [27][28] - Non-IFRS net profit estimates for the same period are 2,554 billion RMB, 2,891 billion RMB, and 3,235 billion RMB respectively [27][28] - The report predicts a non-IFRS EPS of 28 RMB, 31 RMB, and 35 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [27][28] Business Segment Performance Gaming - Expected revenue growth of 18% year-over-year for Q1 2025, with domestic and overseas growth rates of 19% and 17% respectively [8][12] - Strong performance from long-standing games during the Spring Festival period [11][12] Marketing Services - Anticipated revenue growth of 20% year-over-year for Q1 2025, driven by strong performance in video accounts, mini-programs, and search ads [18][19] - AI continues to enhance marketing services, improving ad targeting and conversion rates [25] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Expected revenue growth of 5% year-over-year for Q1 2025, with improvements in payment services and healthy growth in wealth management and small loans [26] - Cloud business potential is expected to accelerate in Q2 2025 [26] Valuation and Target Price - The report assigns a target market value of 5.0 trillion RMB (5.4 trillion HKD) for Tencent Holdings, corresponding to a target price of 603 HKD [28][29]