分行业看18年来中美转口贸易变迁

Core Insights - Since the trade friction between China and the US began in 2018, China's reliance on exports to the US has decreased significantly, particularly in the TMT, home appliance, and textile sectors [6][11] - The share of US imports from China has dropped from 21.6% in 2017 to 13.4% in 2024, returning to levels seen around 2005 [11][12] - The US has increased imports from Mexico, Vietnam, and other countries, which has led to a notable decline in imports from China across various sectors [11][14] Industry Analysis - The TMT sector has seen a significant decline in its share of US imports from China, with a decrease of 39.6 percentage points for computers, 20.7 for home appliances, and 18.1 for communications from 2017 to 2024 [11][15] - The increase in US imports from Mexico includes a rise of 6.7 percentage points for computers, 6.4 for automobiles, and 5.5 for home appliances from 2017 to 2024 [14][15] - Vietnam has also seen a rise in US imports, with communication products increasing by 10.5 percentage points and electronics by 7.2 percentage points during the same period [14][15] Export Dynamics - Despite the decline in direct reliance on Chinese exports, China's manufacturing advantages remain strong, and exports to countries like Vietnam and Mexico have increased significantly [11][17] - For instance, the share of electronic products exported from China to Vietnam increased by 3.4 percentage points from 2017 to 2024, while the US's imports from Vietnam in electronics rose by 7.2 percentage points [17][18] - The sectors where China has increased exports to Mexico include communications, machinery, and non-ferrous metals, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [17][18]