国泰君安商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250416

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various black - series commodities in the futures market, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and thermal coal, and gives corresponding trend judgments [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Trend Judgment: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range oscillations [2]. - Fundamental Data: The futures price closed at 713.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan/ton or 0.99%. The open - interest was 535,095 lots, an increase of 23,198 lots. Imported and domestic ore prices generally rose slightly, and some basis and spreads changed slightly [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Trend Judgment: Both are fluctuating at low levels [2]. - Fundamental Data: For rebar RB2505, the closing price was 3,049 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or - 0.10%. For hot - rolled coil HC2505, the closing price was 3,211 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or - 0.37%. Spot prices in most regions declined slightly, and basis and spreads also changed [7]. - Industry News: On April 11, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data changed. The US increased tariffs on Chinese goods, and China also adjusted tariffs on US imports [8][9]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Trend Judgment: Ferrosilicon has a weak - oscillating trend due to the game between long and short forces. Silicomanganese has a weak - oscillating trend as overseas miners' quotes decline [2]. - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of silicomanganese decreased, and some basis and spreads changed [10]. - Industry News: On April 15, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices were reported, and multiple overseas miners lowered their May quotes [10]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - Trend Judgment: Coke's first - round price increase has been implemented, with wide - range oscillations. Coking coal has wide - range oscillations [2]. - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of coke and coking coal increased. Spot prices were mostly stable, and basis and spreads changed [13]. - Price and Position Information: Northern port coking coal quotes and April 15 CCI metallurgical coal index were provided. On April 15, positions of coking coal and coke contracts changed [13][14][15]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Thermal Coal - Trend Judgment: Demand is improving, and prices are testing for an increase [2]. - Fundamental Data: The ZC2505 contract had no trading yesterday, with previous opening, high, low, and closing prices provided. Southern port foreign - trade thermal coal quotes and domestic production - area quotes were given, and positions did not change on April 15 [16][17]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [18].