Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][5][47] Core Views - The company has accumulated over 200 million paying users through its WeChat mini-program, with a significant focus on improving ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) in 2024, showing a 50% increase compared to 2019 [3][7] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in tourism, with domestic travel volume projected to increase by 6.3% during the Qingming holiday and a continued positive trend for the May Day holiday [4][12] - The company's domestic platform booking growth is anticipated to outperform the industry, with outbound travel expected to create a new growth curve [4][25] - The OTA (Online Travel Agency) business profit margin is entering an upward cycle, with a projected profit margin of 26.9% in 2024, indicating room for improvement compared to industry leaders [4][39] Summary by Sections Business Review - The company was formed by the merger of Tongcheng and Elong in March 2018, focusing on differentiated positioning in the market. The strategic shift from user acquisition to ARPU enhancement began in 2023, resulting in a doubling of paying users [3][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.734 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 22% from 2018 to 2024, and an adjusted net profit of 2.785 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 20.4% during the same period [7][54] Future Outlook - The tourism sector is expected to continue its recovery, benefiting from policies aimed at boosting service consumption. The domestic travel volume during major holidays is projected to account for 35.8% of the annual total, an increase of 8.7 percentage points compared to 2019 [4][16] - The company is actively expanding its outbound travel business, with a projected growth of 130% in outbound flight bookings and 110% in hotel bookings by the end of 2024 [4][36] - The OTA business is expected to see profit margins improve, with a focus on optimizing marketing ROI and enhancing user engagement through targeted subsidies [4][39] Financial Projections - The company maintains adjusted net profit forecasts of 3.30 billion, 3.89 billion, and 4.53 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to dynamic PE ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times [5][47] - The overall profitability is expected to support a CAGR of over 17% in adjusted profits over the next three years, with current valuations still considered attractive [5][47]
同程旅行（00780）：下沉用户旅游景气风向标，利润率进入上行周期