中科三环（000970）：稀土价格企稳回升，公司资产减值压力缓解

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12-15 million yuan in Q1 2025, a significant improvement from a loss of 98.74 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The stabilization of rare earth prices has alleviated the pressure of asset impairment, with the average prices of key raw materials showing slight increases or stability [1]. - The company plans to slow down its capacity expansion in response to market demand and competition, with a total sintered neodymium-iron-boron capacity of 25,000 tons expected by the end of 2024 [2]. - Recent export controls on rare earth elements may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, impacting both domestic and international pricing dynamics [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 8,358 million yuan in 2023, with a projected decline to 6,751 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 7,794 million yuan in 2025 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 192 million yuan in 2025, a substantial increase from 12 million yuan in 2024 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.01 yuan in 2024 to 0.16 yuan in 2025 [4]. Market Dynamics - The company is currently facing challenges due to increased competition and underutilization of existing capacity, with an overall operating rate of approximately 65% [2]. - The recent export controls on rare earth materials are anticipated to impact the company's export revenue in the short term, necessitating close monitoring of volume and price dynamics [3].