QINCHUAN(000837) 西南证券·2025-04-16 12:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qin Chuan Machine Tool (000837) is "Hold" with a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to see stable growth in performance, with a potential turning point anticipated in 2025. The revenue for 2024 is projected at 38.60 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.62%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 0.54 billion yuan, also showing a growth of 2.92% [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Revenue is projected to grow from 38.60 billion yuan in 2024 to 51.76 billion yuan by 2027, with growth rates of 12.18%, 9.50%, and 9.18% for the subsequent years [2][9]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 0.54 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.58 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43% [7][9]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.05 yuan in 2024 to 0.16 yuan in 2027 [2][9]. - Return on Equity (ROE): - ROE is expected to improve from 1.36% in 2024 to 3.66% in 2027 [2][9]. Business Segment Analysis - Machine Tool Segment: - The company is a leader in the domestic gear machine tool market, with a focus on expanding high-end five-axis machine tools. Revenue from this segment is expected to grow significantly, with projected growth rates of 16.3%, 12.0%, and 11.2% from 2025 to 2027 [8]. - Parts Segment: - The parts segment is expected to see a recovery with growth rates of 10.1%, 8.2%, and 8.1% over the same period, benefiting from demand recovery and scale effects [8]. - Overall Gross Margin: - The overall gross margin is projected to improve from 16.15% in 2024 to 17.50% in 2027, driven by the growth in high-end machine tools and parts [2][9]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing reforms, including share buybacks and stock incentive plans, to enhance shareholder value. In 2024, it repurchased 2.46 million shares for a total of 21.10 million yuan [7].