中国宏观数据点评：一季度GDP和3月实体经济数据均好于预期，后续关注关税影响和增量刺激政策

Economic Performance - China's GDP growth rate for Q1 remains at 5.4%, exceeding market expectations of 5.2%[3] - Nominal GDP growth also holds steady at 4.6%[4] - March industrial production growth surged to 7.7%, significantly above the expected 5.9%[8] Consumption and Investment - Retail sales in March increased by 5.9%, surpassing the market forecast of 4.3%[5] - Fixed asset investment growth improved marginally to 4.2%, slightly above expectations[8] - Real estate investment saw a decline of 9.9%, while new construction area decreased by 24.4%[8] External Factors and Risks - Export growth accelerated to 12.4% in March, despite ongoing tariff impacts from the US-China trade war[7] - The trade surplus increased by 49% year-on-year, but future export growth faces significant risks due to tariffs[9] - The overall economic growth forecast for the year is at risk, with a potential downward adjustment from the current 4.5%[9] Policy Responses - The government is expected to implement additional fiscal stimulus of 1% to 1.5% of GDP to counteract tariff impacts[10] - Monetary policy may see a reduction in reserve requirements by 50 basis points and interest rate cuts of 30 to 40 basis points this year[12] - Potential measures include lowering housing fund loan rates and offering tax incentives to boost housing market confidence[12]