CMSK(001979) 国信证券·2025-04-17 05:22Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market index by more than 10% [5][36][37]. Core Views - The company is a leading state-owned enterprise with a strong market position, focusing on development, asset operation, and property services, with a stable shareholding structure [1][8][10]. - Despite a 36% decline in net profit year-on-year for 2024, the company has adequately provisioned for asset and credit impairments, which totaled approximately 6 billion yuan, reflecting a 150% increase from the previous year [1][15]. - The company maintains a healthy financial status with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62% and a net debt ratio of 56%, consistently staying within the green zone of the "three red lines" policy [22]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 178.9 billion yuan, a 2% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 4 billion yuan, down 36% [1][4][15]. - The gross profit margin for the company was reported at 15.6%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][15]. Sales and Development - The company recorded a sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan in 2024, a 25% decrease year-on-year, while the sales area fell by 24% [2][20]. - The company acquired 26 land parcels in 2024, with a total planned construction area of approximately 2.25 million square meters and a total land cost of about 48.6 billion yuan [2][20]. Financial Health and Cost of Capital - The company has a comprehensive financing cost of 2.99%, which is 48 basis points lower than the beginning of the year, maintaining an industry-leading level [22]. - The company successfully secured 9.2 billion yuan in operational property loans and raised 15.5 billion yuan in public market financing, with the lowest coupon rates in the industry [22]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 161.8 billion yuan, 153 billion yuan, and 156.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 4.1 billion yuan for each of those years [3][28][31]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in performance as high land cost, low margin projects are completed, leading to a stabilization in earnings [3][36]. Valuation - The absolute valuation estimates the company's per-share value at 11.38 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current share price [31][35]. - Relative valuation suggests that the company's valuation is comparable to peer companies, with a 2025 dynamic PE ratio of 17.2, which reflects a premium due to the quality of land and strong financing background [36].