国元证券晨会纪要-20250417

Key Points - The report highlights that the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 2.8% to 2.2% by the WTO, indicating the negative impact of trade wars on the overall economy [1] - In March, China's retail sales surged, reflecting a strong consumer demand [1] - The report notes that China's industrial added value for March increased by 7.7% year-on-year, indicating robust industrial activity [1] - The report mentions that the sales price decline of commercial residential properties in various Chinese cities has continued to narrow [1] - The report indicates that the U.S. retail sales saw a significant increase in March, suggesting a rebound in consumer spending [1] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index decreased by 1.48% to 1263.00, while the Nasdaq Index fell by 3.07% to 16307.16 [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.73% to 39669.39, and the S&P 500 decreased by 2.24% to 5275.70 [2] - The ICE Brent crude oil price rose by 2.15% to 66.06, while the London gold spot price increased by 3.49% to 3342.48 [2] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 1.91% to 21056.98, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 2.55% to 7779.01 [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.26% to 3276.00, while the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 1.10% to 1878.92 [2]