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特步国际(01368):第一季度主品牌流水增长中单位数,索康尼增长超40%

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][7] Core Views - The company's main brand retail sales increased in the mid-single digits year-on-year in Q1 2025, with retail discounts ranging from 7.0 to 7.5, and a channel inventory turnover ratio of 4 months [2][3][4] - The Saucony brand saw retail sales growth exceeding 40% across all channels [2][3][6] - The management maintains a target of over 10% profit growth for 2025, with plans to transform 400-500 stores to a direct-to-consumer (DTC) model by the end of 2026 [6] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the main brand's retail sales increased in the mid-single digits, with online sales growing over 20% and offline sales showing low single-digit growth, primarily affected by foot traffic [4] - The retail discount for the main brand remained stable at 7.0-7.5, with an inventory turnover ratio of 4 months, indicating healthy inventory levels [5] Brand Growth - Both Saucony and Myle's brands experienced growth exceeding 40% in Q1 2025 [3][6] - The company focuses on the running category, leveraging its expertise to achieve steady sales growth for the main brand and rapid growth for professional sports brands [9] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1.402 billion, 1.485 billion, and 1.600 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 5.9%, and 7.7% [10][14] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 6.1-6.6 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 11-12x for 2025 [9][10]