国泰海通晨报-20250417

Group 1: Strategy and Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the "China version of the stabilization fund" has played a positive role in stabilizing indices and boosting market confidence amid external disturbances. The Central Huijin Company has expressed its commitment to supporting the capital market and has increased its holdings in index funds, signaling a focus on long-term value over short-term volatility [3][20][21] - Central Huijin's actions are expected to quickly stabilize market sentiment and assist in bottoming out the market. The People's Bank of China has also indicated that it will provide sufficient re-lending support to Central Huijin when necessary, enhancing the operational capacity of the "China version of the stabilization fund" [3][20][21] Group 2: Funding Sources and Structure - Central Huijin's funding sources are diversified and stable, including self-owned funds, stable cash dividends, and established market financing channels. In February 2025, the Ministry of Finance transferred equity from several financial institutions to Central Huijin, strengthening its asset base [4][21] - The total scale of ETFs held by Central Huijin reached 1,053 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a significant increase in the number of ETF varieties. The average holding ratio of Central Huijin's asset management in various ETFs rose from 3.88% in mid-2024 to 25.94% by the end of 2024, indicating a notable increase in pricing power in the technology growth sector [5][21] Group 3: Semiconductor Equipment Industry - The report highlights that Hybrid technology began mass production in the logic process field in 2022, with a second wave of demand expected in 2024. It is anticipated that the storage sector will start adopting Hybrid Bonding technology between 2025 and 2026, with demand for Hybrid Bonding equipment projected to reach around 1,400 units by 2030 [7][23] - Application Materials' acquisition of a 9% stake in Besi is viewed as a strategic long-term investment, aimed at developing integrated solutions for Hybrid Bonding technology. This collaboration is expected to enhance capabilities for large-scale production in the coming years [8][24][25] Group 4: Financial Performance of Besi - Besi's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 607.5 million euros, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The company reported a gross margin of 65.2% and an order volume of 586.7 million euros, up 7.0% year-on-year, primarily driven by demand for AI applications [9][25] - Besi holds an 18% market share in the advanced packaging equipment sector, with a dominant 67% share in the Advanced Die Placement equipment segment, indicating its strong position in the semiconductor equipment market [9][25] Group 5: Real Estate Industry - The report indicates a significant acceleration in the public announcement of land acquisition using special bonds, with a total proposed acquisition amount exceeding 130 billion yuan. The majority of these acquisitions are from state-owned enterprises, and the average discount rate for land acquisition is approximately 0.8 [27][28] - The issuance of special bonds has also progressed, totaling over 40 billion yuan, which is relatively small compared to the proposed acquisition amount, suggesting a need for local governments to implement their acquisition plans [29][31] Group 6: Automotive Industry - The collaboration between FAW Audi and Huawei aims to enhance Audi's smart driving capabilities, with all new models set to feature advanced driving assistance systems developed jointly with Huawei. This partnership is expected to strengthen Audi's market position in the luxury car segment in China [31][32] - The report recommends focusing on the automotive supply chain, particularly companies like Jifeng and KBD, which are expected to benefit from Audi's growth in the smart vehicle sector [32] Group 7: Company-Specific Insights - The report maintains a "cautious increase" rating for the company in the silicon wafer sector, projecting revenues of 4.442 billion yuan and 5.724 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a significant increase in net profit expected [33][34] - The company is expected to face challenges in profitability due to weak industry demand, but its capacity expansion in 300mm silicon wafers is anticipated to enhance its long-term competitiveness [34][35]