MTC(002429) 华安证券·2025-04-17 12:33Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company is undergoing a transformation towards hard technology, with expectations for performance improvements in 2024 [2][7] - The company has a solid foundation in TV ODM, with production in Vietnam starting in the first half of 2024, and manageable tariff impacts [12] - The integrated layout of the LED industry chain is entering a harvest period, expected to continuously contribute to performance elasticity [12] - The company is expanding into the optical communication field, enhancing its vertical industry chain advantages [9][12] Revenue Analysis - The company is actively expanding production capacity, with 50 COB production lines, making it the largest Mini COB backlight module manufacturer globally [9] - The optical communication sector has begun shipments in the optical access network and telecommunications fields, with plans to expand into data communication, industrial automation, and autonomous driving [9] Profit Analysis - The company adjusted its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 238 billion, 273 billion, and 310 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of +17%, +15%, and +13% respectively [12] - For 2024, the company anticipates revenues of 203.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +18.4%, with a net profit of 16.0 billion yuan, reflecting a +0.9% year-on-year growth [12] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.07 yuan per 10 shares, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 30% [12] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is projected at 17.2%, with a slight decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [13] - The net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 7.9%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.4 percentage points [13] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 10.1% in 2024 to 12.5% in 2027 [16][18]