Jiangsu Expressway(600377) 华源证券·2025-04-18 01:26Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Buy" for the company, marking its first coverage [5][61]. Core Views - The company focuses on its core toll road business while exploring diversified layouts, which is expected to enhance its profitability and shareholder returns [7][10]. - The company has a strong position in the Jiangsu province's highway network, with significant contributions from its core asset, the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway [10][38]. - The report anticipates steady growth in revenue and net profit, driven by the recovery of traffic demand and expansion of road assets [57][61]. Summary by Relevant Sections Basic Data - Closing price: 15.59 CNY - Total market capitalization: 78,538.48 million CNY - Total shares outstanding: 5,037.75 million shares - Debt-to-asset ratio: 44.67% [3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenue for 2025: 22,128 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -4.61% - Projected net profit for 2025: 5,211 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.33% - Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025: 15.07 [6][8]. Investment Highlights - The company has a cumulative cash dividend of 246.85 billion CNY from 2014 to 2024, with a stable dividend per share of around 0.45 CNY [7][33]. - The company operates 19 toll road projects with approximately 1,000 kilometers of controlled or invested road mileage [14][38]. - The Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway contributes 55.22% of the total revenue from toll roads in 2024 [38]. Revenue Structure - Toll road revenue accounted for approximately 41.07% of total revenue in 2024, with construction period revenue from PPP projects contributing 46.84% [20][26]. - Investment income for 2024 is estimated at 17.80 billion CNY, representing 28.07% of operating profit [26][46]. Risk and Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of macroeconomic conditions and the expansion of its road network, which will drive traffic volume and revenue growth [9][57]. - The diversification into financial services, renewable energy, and real estate is anticipated to enhance profitability and sustainability [45][51].