航运衍生品数据日报-20250418

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current shipping market's 06 contract returns to the reality logic, showing a weak reality situation. Maersk's May quotation remains the same as April without an increase, with sufficient capacity and high difficulty in price hikes, lacking a one - month upward slope compared to previous years. The market anticipates a decline in demand for US - bound ships due to tariff impacts, and some ships have shifted to European routes. Overall, the 08 contract has better opportunities than the 06 contract. Although there are speculations about trans - shipment and pre - export, there is not much evidence. There is still an opportunity to go long on the 08 contract: the current freight rate is $2100, and the August valuation is $2300, with a gradually sufficient safety margin; August has a two - month extension of the peak season compared to June; and some idle US - bound ships have shifted to European routes. May freight rates are impacted by a one - time increase in capacity, and the peak season starting from June involves essential Western festival goods, which are less sensitive to high freight rates [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Index: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1395, 1107, 2202, 1587, 3226, and 1356 respectively, with corresponding changes of 0.14%, 0.41%, - 4.80%, 40.57%, - 2.42%, and 1.50% compared to the previous values. The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1402 and 2144, with changes of - 1.41% and 5.72% respectively [5] - EC Contracts: The current values of EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2504 are 1555.2, 1646.0, 1314.8, 1465.2, 1315.9, and 1428.9 respectively, with changes of 0.95%, 1.20%, 0.67%, 0.91%, 1.22%, and 0.13% respectively. The current positions of EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2504 are 36947, 30775, 16254, 3789, 2765, and 1158 respectively, with changes of 506, - 85, 12, - 77, - 48, and - 13 respectively. The current values of the 4 - 6, 6 - 8, and 8 - 10 month spreads are - 126.3, - 90.8, and 331.2 respectively, with changes of - 12.7, - 4.9, and 10.7 respectively [5] 3.2 Market News - China is open to negotiations on the premise that Trump shows respect and appoints a negotiation leader. A US congressional delegation will visit Taiwan from April 16 - 19 to discuss US - Taiwan relations, regional security, trade, and investment. The highest tariff on some Chinese products exported to the US can reach 245%, mainly targeting syringes and needles, with no marginal change [6] 3.3 EC Market Review - The market shows a volatile trend. After the price - increase attempts in March and April failed, the small - scale price increases in late April by major airlines had low coordination, and the expected effect is poor. CMA plans to lower the May freight rate to $2560, HPL maintains the May quote at $3000, ONE lowers it to $1800, and Maersk continues the April freight rate of $1800. The success of the May price increase depends on the airlines' actions regarding late - April freight rates and the ability to build a rolling cabin. The average price in early April is $2100, ranging from $1800 - $2300. In late April, the increased quotes gradually declined. High - capacity deployment in mid - to late April makes it difficult for airlines to raise prices [7]