促消费政策持续推出，美联储保持观望

Domestic Economic Indicators - In March, the social financing (社融) stock reached 422.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[8] - The new social financing in March was 5.89 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 1.05 trillion yuan, primarily driven by a significant increase in government bonds[9] - March exports grew by 12.4% year-on-year, with a trade surplus of 102.64 billion USD, an increase of 44.05 billion USD compared to the same period last year[10] Policy Developments - The "Service Consumption Quality Improvement Action Plan 2025" was released, proposing 48 tasks to enhance service consumption, potentially activating a trillion-level market[13] - Qingdao introduced new housing policies, offering subsidies of 50,000 and 100,000 yuan for families with two or three children, respectively, to stimulate the housing market[15] Global Economic Context - The IEA downgraded global oil demand growth forecasts for the next two years, with expected daily demand growth dropping to 730,000 barrels in 2025 and 690,000 barrels in 2026[17] - The German ZEW economic sentiment index fell sharply to -14, a decline of 65.6 points, indicating deep concerns about economic prospects due to U.S. tariff policies[20] - U.S. retail sales surged by 1.4% month-on-month in March, driven by panic buying ahead of tariff increases, raising concerns about potential stagflation risks[25]